Weekend Surf Forecast - Friday 27th Jan

Report Date: Friday 27 January 2017

For tips on forecasting see my book Surf Science, in paperback and animated versions Available at www.surfscience.org

Summary

Large northwest swell, but lumpy in many places

Best bet

The Basque Country

Synopsis at 00:00 UTC

Today’s chart shows centres of low pressure over Greenland and just south of Iceland, with a weak ridge between the two systems, and a consistent westerly flow between Newfoundland and Iberia. Peripheral depressions are forecast to form around the Greenland centre, with the westerly flow becoming strong at times, generating some largish swell for west-facing spots. Local pressure gradients are moderate or strong in most places. The upper airstream is healthy, meanderless and with a strong, quite southerly-orientated jet.
NAO index (large positive values usually mean potentially good surf): +25 mb

Area forecasts

Southwest Wales

Friday:
Largish, lumpy swell and windsea mixed, up to six feet or so at exposed spots, with fresh southeast winds, gusting strong at first

Saturday:
Wave heights drop to around four or five feet at exposed spots, and conditions remain lumpy, with fresh southwest winds

Sunday:
The swell quality deteriorates further but wave heights remain around four or five feet, with fresh gusting strong southerly winds

North Devon and Cornwall

Friday:
Average-quality swell with an underlying long-period component; wave heights up to six feet at exposed spots in the west, with fresh southeast then moderate south winds

Saturday:
The swell continues, average-quality and mixed with local windseas generated by fresh westerly winds; wave heights around five feet or so

Sunday:
The swell quality deteriorates, with mostly windseas generated by fresh to strong southwest winds and wave heights around four or five feet

South Coast of England

Friday:
Small long-period southwest swell mixed with windseas from fresh to strong southerly winds; wave heights around four or five feet at exposed spots

Saturday:
The swell drops to around three or four feet at exposed spots, and winds are moderate southwest then fresh westerlies

Sunday:
Winds pick up to strong gusting gale-force southerlies, and wave heights pick up to a very lumpy five or six feet

East coast of England

Friday:
Average or poor quality southeast swell, driven by fresh gusting strong south-southeast winds; wave heights up to about four feet at southeast exposures

Saturday:
Conditions clean up as winds veer southwest, moderate gusting fresh, and the southeast swell gradually drops, going below three feet in most places by afternoon

Sunday:
Very small or flat in most places, with moderate gusting fresh south-southwest winds

North Coast of Scotland

Friday:
Small west swell, up to three feet or so but much bigger at westerly exposures, with fresh to strong southerly winds

Saturday:
The small west swell continues, around two or three feet on average, bigger at extreme westerly exposures, with moderate southwest winds

Sunday:
The swell swings west-northwest, up to four or five feet, perhaps bigger at exposed spots, with fresh southwest winds gusting strong at first

Northwest Ireland

Friday:
Good-quality west swell, up to eight feet at exposed spots at first, gradually dropping, with southerly winds fresh to strong at first decreasing moderate later

Saturday:
The swell drops to around six feet at westerly exposures and remains steady most of the day, with moderate gusting fresh southwest winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around four or five feet and the swell weakens slightly, but wind conditions improve in many places, with light gusting moderate southerlies

Southwest Ireland

Friday:
Mixed southwest and northwest swells, up to ten feet at exposed spots, with bumpy conditions in moderate westerly winds

Saturday:
The swell continues, weakening and dropping to around eight feet, with local windseas generated by fresh westerly winds

Sunday:
The swell weakens further and becomes very mixed, around five feet or so on average, with moderate southerly winds increasing fresh to strong later

Southwest France

Friday:
Average-quality swell at first but then a very long period component arrives, exceeding six feet around Hossegor, with moderate southeast winds

Saturday:
The swell fills in and becomes more consistent, around eight to ten feet around Hossegor, with bumpy conditions in moderate westerly winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around five or six feet, and winds are moderate perhaps fresh southerlies

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Friday:
A very long period swell arrives mid-morning, hitting ten feet at exposed reefs, with fresh southerly winds gusting strong at exposed spots

Saturday:
The swell fills in and becomes more consistent, around eight to ten feet at exposed reefs, with light to moderate southwest winds veering light westerly later

Sunday:
The swell weakens, dropping to around five feet or so, and winds pick up to fresh southerlies

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Friday:
Very long period northwest swell, picking up to eight feet or more at exposed reefs by afternoon, with moderate gusting fresh southwest winds

Saturday:
The swell becomes more consistent but weakens, with wave heights still around six to eight feet at exposed spots and moderate gusting fresh southwest winds

Sunday:
The swell weakens considerably and becomes lumpy, down to around five feet, with moderate gusting fresh or strong southwest winds

Northwest Galicia

Friday:
Long-period northwest swell, mixed with some local windseas generated by fresh west or northwest winds; wave heights exceeding ten feet at exposed spots

Saturday:
The swell drops but becomes a bit cleaner; wave heights around eight or nine feet with moderate southwest winds then fresh gusting strong southerlies

Sunday:
The swell weakens considerably and becomes mixed with local windseas in many places; around six to eight feet on average with fresh to strong southwest winds

*Portugal – north of Lisbon *

Friday:
Long-period swell mixed with shorter-period component and local windseas generated by strong northwest winds; wave heights exceeding 15 feet at some spots

Saturday:
The swell becomes a bit less mixed, dropping to around ten feet or so, with moderate southwest winds

Sunday:
The swell weakens and drops to around six or seven feet, with moderate to fresh south or southwest winds

Portugal – south of Lisbon

Friday:
Mixed swell conditions, with a very long-period component, a shorter-period component and local windseas; hitting 15 feet at exposed spots, with strong northwest winds

Saturday:
The swell becomes less mixed and conditions clean up; wave heights around ten feet at exposed spots with light to moderate southwest winds

Sunday:
The swell drops quickly, down to around five feet or so, with conditions continuing to clean up, with light south or southwest winds