Weekend Surf Forecast - Friday 13th January

Report Date: Friday 13 January 2017

For tips on forecasting see my book Surf Science, in paperback and animated versions Available at www.surfscience.org

Summary

Large northwest swell, hampered by poor winds in many places

Best bet

Northeast England

Synopsis at 00:00 UTC

Today’s chart shows a large area of high pressure about 800 miles north of the Azores, drifting slowly east. The other main feature is a complex area of low pressure covering Scandinavia and the North Sea, gradually weakening. It has a strong northerly fetch generating some large, stormy surf for the far north and northeast. The upper airstream is fairly strong and will develop a meander through the middle of the North Atlantic during the next few days. Local pressure gradients are strong in the north, moderate in the south.
NAO index (large positive values usually mean potentially good surf): +20 mb

Area forecasts

Southwest Wales

Friday:
Small, cleanish swell, around two or three feet, but bigger and lumpier in the far west, with strong to gale-force northwest winds

Saturday:
Continuing small in most places, around two or three feet, perhaps bigger in the far west, with fresh to strong northwest winds

Sunday:
Very small or flat in most places, with fresh gusting strong northwest winds

North Devon and Cornwall

Friday:
Long-period swell hampered in many places by strong northwest winds; wave heights exceeding six feet at exposed spots

Saturday:
The swell drops to around three or four feet and winds continue fresh to strong northwest

Sunday:
Mostly wind-driven swell, around three or four feet at exposed spots, with fresh gusting strong west then northwest winds

South Coast of England

Friday:
Small long-period swell, perhaps reaching three feet at westerly exposures, with strong northwest winds, perhaps reaching gale force at first

Saturday:
Wave heights drop to nothing practically everywhere, and winds are moderate to fresh north or northwest

Sunday:
Very small or flat practically everywhere, with light to moderate westerly winds

East coast of England

Friday:
Very large lumpy north swell, reaching 15 feet at exposed spots, accompanied by strong to gale-force northwest winds

Saturday:
The swell drops to around ten feet at northerly exposures, and winds continue strong northwest

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around five or six feet at exposed spots and conditions clean up considerably, with light to moderate south or southeast winds

North Coast of Scotland

Friday:
Large, lumpy north swell, exceeding 15 feet at exposed spots at first, accompanied by gale-force northwest winds and hellish conditions

Saturday:
The swell drops to around six to eight feet but remains very lumpy, with fresh gusting strong northwest winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around five feet or so, on average, with north and west components, and cleaner conditions in moderate westerly winds

Northwest Ireland

Friday:
Large, lumpy northwest swell, up to 15 feet at exposed spots at first, dropping steadily, with fresh gusting strong northwest winds

Saturday:
The swell weakens and drops to around eight feet, with moderate to fresh northwest winds, backing west later

Sunday:
More swell arrives from the west-northwest, with wave heights around six to eight feet at exposed spots, but hampered in many places by strong westerly winds

Southwest Ireland

Friday:
Large, lumpy northwest swell, up to 15 feet at northwest exposures at first, dropping later, with strong and persistent northwest winds

Saturday:
The swell cleans up a bit and drops to around six to eight feet at northwest exposures, with fresh northwest winds, veering moderate west later

Sunday:
More swell arrives from the west-northwest, up to eight feet or so at exposed spots, hampered in many places by moderate to fresh westerly winds

Southwest France

Friday:
Large, long-period swell mixed with local windseas generated by strong northwest winds; wave heights up to about 15 feet and very lumpy

Saturday:
Wave heights drop to around eight or nine feet, and conditions clean up as winds change to light or moderate north-easterlies

Sunday:
The swell remains steady at around six to eight feet, with moderate northeast winds

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Friday:
Large, wind-driven swell combined with a longer-period component, around 15 feet or so, with strong northwest winds, decreasing later

Saturday:
The swell drops to around ten feet, and winds are fresh northwest or north, making things very lumpy

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around eight feet, then drop further during the day, with fresh northerly winds

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Friday:
Large north-northwest swell, exceeding 15 feet at exposed spots, with light to moderate northwest winds and bumpy conditions

Saturday:
The swell drops to around ten feet, and then gradually drops further during the day, continuing quite bumpy but winds dropping to light northerlies

Sunday:
Wave heights continue to drop, going below six feet at most spots by afternoon, mixing with a short-period northerly component, and light northerly winds

Northwest Galicia

Friday:
Largish, mixed northwest swell, up to 15 feet at northwest exposures, with fresh northerly winds

Saturday:
The swell drops to around ten feet, then gradually drops further, with cleaner conditions at many spots in moderate to fresh northeast winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to six feet or below at many spots, and winds are moderate perhaps fresh north-easterlies

*Portugal – north of Lisbon *

Friday:
Largish, mixed swell, increasing to over ten feet by afternoon, with strong northerly winds

Saturday:
The swell continues, around ten feet or so at northwest exposures and a bit less mixed, with fresh northerly winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to six feet or less at most spots by afternoon, and winds are moderate northerlies, but light northeast for a while at first

Portugal – south of Lisbon

Friday:
Average-quality northwest swell, perhaps exceeding six feet at northwest exposures later, with strong northerly winds

Saturday:
The swell becomes much more solid, perhaps hitting ten feet at reefs exposed to the northwest, with fresh north-northeast winds

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around four or five feet at exposed spots, and winds are mostly moderate north-easterlies

Don't forget to keep a diary of your sessions this weekend! Download Johnny on the Spot from the App Store here, or from the Google Play Store here.