Weekend Surf Forecast. 10th Feb.

Report Date: Friday 10 February 2017

For tips on forecasting see my book Surf Science, in paperback and animated versions Available at www.surfscience.org

Summary

A largish long-period swell reaches westerly exposures, windy in many places

Best bet

Southwest france

Synopsis at 00:00 UTC

Today’s chart shows a nasty cut-off low centred just off Galicia, moving south and gradually weakening, expected just off morocco by Sunday. There is a large high west of the Azores and another high over Scandinavia, the two systems merging together as a ridge over the weekend. Local pressure gradients are moderate in most places. The upper airstream is quite weak and broken up at the moment.
NAO index (large positive values usually mean potentially good surf): +10 mb

Area forecasts

Southwest Wales

Friday:
Good-quality swell, up to four or five feet at exposed spots, with moderate perhaps fresh east or northeast winds

Saturday:
The swell drops fast, going below three feet in most places by afternoon, and winds pick up to fresh or strong north-northwest

Sunday:
Very small or flat in most places, with fresh to strong east or northeast winds

North Devon and Cornwall

Friday:
Good-quality swell, around five or six feet at exposed spots in the west, with moderate to fresh easterly winds, backing northeast in the afternoon

Saturday:
The swell drops steadily, down to around three feet or so at exposed spots by afternoon, and winds pick up to fresh or strong north-northeast

Sunday:
The swell drops almost completely, and winds are strong northeast, generating some short-period windseas at north-facing spots

South Coast of England

Friday:
Long-period swell reaches southwest and west-facing spots, up to three or four feet at first, gradually dropping, with fresh northeast winds

Saturday:
The swell drops to below three feet everywhere, flat in many places later, with moderate to fresh north or northeast winds

Sunday:
Winds pick up to strong east-northeast, generating some short-period east swell, up to three feet or so at exposed spots

East coast of England

Friday:
Short-period wind driven swell from the east, up to three or four feet at exposed spots, with moderate to fresh east then northeast winds

Saturday:
The short-period east swell continues, around four feet or so, with fresh gusting strong northeast winds

Sunday:
The swell becomes more solid, up to six feet at exposed spots, with lumpy conditions in fresh to strong northeast winds

North Coast of Scotland

Friday:
Good-quality west swell, up to three or four feet at exposed spots and swell-magnets, smaller at north-facing spots, with light southeast winds

Saturday:
The swell drops to three feet or below at most spots, perhaps bigger at exposed swell-magnets, with light perhaps moderate easterly winds

Sunday:
The swell continues small, struggling to exceed three feet in most places, with light southeast winds backing east by afternoon

Northwest Ireland

Friday:
Good-quality west swell, around six or seven feet at westerly exposures, with moderate easterly winds, perhaps fresh at first

Saturday:
The swell weakens, around four or five feet, and winds pick up to moderate or fresh north-northeast
Sunday:

The swell drops another notch, down to around three feet at westerly exposures, with fresh to strong easterly winds

Southwest Ireland

Friday:
A long-period swell that peaked on Thursday gradually drops, around eight to ten feet, perhaps bigger at exposed reefs, with moderate easterly winds

Saturday:
The swell drops to around four or five feet on average, with fresh northeast winds, perhaps gusting strong later

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to three feet or below in most places, and winds pick up to strong east-northeast

Southwest France

Friday:
Good-quality long period west swell, around six to eight feet, with light winds from an easterly quarter

Saturday:
The swell continues, around six or seven feet and good quality, with windless conditions at first then light to moderate north-easterlies

Sunday:
Wave heights drop to around three or four feet, but conditions remain good, with light easterly winds

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Friday:
Good-quality west-northwest swell, up to eight feet or more at exposed reefs, with moderate to fresh south or southeast winds

Saturday:
The swell continues, around six or seven feet, perhaps bigger at exposed reefs, with windless conditions at first becoming moderate north-easterlies later

Sunday:
The swell drops to around four feet or so on average, and winds are moderate to fresh easterlies

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Friday:
Good-quality west-northwest swell, picking up to eight feet or so at exposed reefs later, with light southeast winds becoming moderate northeast later

Saturday:
The swell swings northwest and drops to below six feet by afternoon, mixing with short-period northeast swell and fresh northeast winds

Sunday:
The longer-period swell drops, leaving short-period swells from the north and northeast, around four or five feet, with fresh east-northeast winds

Northwest Galicia

Friday:
Large, long-period west swell combined with shorter-period south swell, hitting 15 feet at exposed spots, with strong south-southeast winds, gusting gale-force at first

Saturday:
The swell drops to around six feet and becomes a bit more lined up, with strong northeast winds

Sunday:
The west swell drops to almost nothing and some poor-quality swell hits northwest-facing spots, around four feet or so, with fresh northeast winds

*Portugal – north of Lisbon *

Friday:
Large, ragged swell from the west-northwest, well over 15 feet at exposed spots, with fresh south-southwest winds

Saturday:
The swell drops fast, down to ten feet or below by afternoon, with slightly improved conditions in strong easterly winds

Sunday:
Wave heights continue to drop and the swell swings northwest, around four or five feet on average, with fresh to strong easterly winds

Portugal – south of Lisbon

Friday:
Large, ragged swell, up to 15 feet, perhaps bigger at exposed reefs, with moderate to fresh southwest winds becoming moderate south later

Saturday:
The swell drops during the day, to around six feet by late afternoon, with fresh easterly winds at first becoming strong southerlies later

Sunday:
The swell drops to around three or four feet, mixing with some shorter-period south swell, and fresh easterly winds, gusting strong at first